Mapping Africa Transformations

Security

Instability is on the rise in the Sahel and West Africa. Violent events and civilian casualties are increasing. Our tools help policy makers to better understand the geography of violence which leads to better designed, place-based and contextualised policies. Security is analysed under three dimensions: i) the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi); ii) borders and iii) urban/rural.

Despite rapid urbanisation, violence remains predominantly rural in West Africa. More than 40% of all events and fatalities recorded between 2000-22 occurred in rural areas, located in the outskirts of intermediary cities. When violence does occur in urban areas, it is more frequent in small urban agglomerations of less than 100 000 inhabitants rather than in medium or large urban areas.

Overall, urban areas have seen a decrease in the proportion of violent events over time: from 70% in 2012 to less than 20% in 2022 in West Africa. North Africa shows a similar trend: from 80% in 2012 to 40% in 2022.

 

Violent events and fatalities by demographic categories in North and West Africa 2000-22

 

Notes: Data available through 30 June 2022. Under the United Nations definition, cells of 1 500 or more people per square km are classified as urban, those between 300 and 1 499 as semi-urban, and those below 300 are rural (United Nation 2020).Source: OCDE/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2020) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.

 

 

 

Violent events by demographic categories in North and West Africa, 2000-22

Note: The figure summarises the relationship between violent events and the United Nations’ “degree of urbanisation” categories between 2000 and 2022 for the three types of violence tracked by ACLED: battles, violence against civilians, and explosions and remote violence. The data is available through 30 June 2022.Source: Authors, based on ACLED (2022) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED and WorldPop data are publicly available.

 

 

Violence in rural areas tends to cut off major cities from their hinterlands. Since the mid-2010s, Niamey, Ouagadougou or Bamako have been surrounded by ever-expanding areas of conflict. Movement and communication between secure areas around these centres has become increasingly difficult as adjacent rural areas have become zones of profound insecurity. One third-of all violent events occur in urban areas, with two-thirds taking place within 40km of urban areas.

Violent events by distance from urban areas in North and West Africa, 2000-22

 

Source: OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2020) and WorldPop (2022) data. ACLED data is publicly available.

 

 

In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, most violent events have occurred in rural areas. In Mali, more than 80% of violent events in 2022 occurred in rural areas. All three countries show similar trends as they are all facing major jihadist insurgencies. In 2021, jihadist organisations accounted for 80% of rural violence and less than 10% of urban violence.

Fatalities in Burkina Faso and neighbouring countries, 2021

 

Source: OECD/SWAC (2023), based on data from ACLED (2021). ACLED data is publicly available.

 

Related content

Urbanisation and Conflicts in North and West Africa

While cities and urban areas have always been sites of conflict, given their political and economic importance, many insurgencies, rebellions and separatist movements are associated with rural areas

Presenting the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator – SCDi

Learn about the SCDi through this short, animated explainer video

Borders and conflict in North and West Africa

This publication examines the role of border regions in shaping patterns of violence since the end of the 1990s in North and West Africa

Conflict networks in North and West Africa

Conflicts in North and West Africa have become more violent and widespread than in the past